Marvin Shilmer

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Posts by Marvin Shilmer

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  12

  These Aussie girls are popular around the world for lipsing

  by barry in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  www.youtube.com/watch?v=pmpqusqcjfg.

  what on gods earth is the world coming too.

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  Marvin Shilmer

  Just watched this latest video. I have to say it. These gals are flat-out hot. On fire hot.
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  22

  royal commission so far

  by zeb in

  1. watchtower
  2. child-abuse

  before another day goes past please, summarize the outcome in dot points of the royal commission so far.

  for me in no order;.

  that the wt considers sex crimes against children of little importance.

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  Marvin Shilmer

  - Based on data disclosed by the Royal Commission we can safely calculate that between the years of 1975 to 2014 every single congregation of Jehovah's Witnesses in the world has had in its midst at least one reported case of a sexual molestation of a child by someone with standing in the congregation.
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  37

  Australian Branch Stats?

  by Marvin Shilmer in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  i'm working on some statistical analysis of child abuse data made public by the royal commission.

  while i'm working on this, can someone here do me a favor and look up the peak publisher figures reported by watchtower for the australian branch for each of the years from 2005 through 2014?

  my thanks in advance.

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  Marvin Shilmer

  Okay, more on my statistical review.

  So far:

  1. I've focused my attention on two things. The sample of peak publishers in the Australian branch and the population of that sample of cases reported of individuals with standing in a congregation of Jehovah's Witnesses who've sexually molested a child (or children). (See my second post in this discussion for more detail on criteria for inclusion)

  2. For the 10-year period of 2005-2014 I found an annual average incident rate of 0.000401 per peak publisher. Applied to the worldwide peak publishers for the same 10-year period extrapolates 28,827 individuals associated with Jehovah's Witnesses that have been reported for sexual molestation of a child.

  3. For the 10-year period of 2005-2014 I found victims at an annual average rate of 0.000645 per peak publisher. Applied to the worldwide peak publishers for the same 10-year period extrapolates 46,102 child victims.

  Trend

  The result of a question asked of trends and subsequent number crunching found the following:

  4. When I constructed 10-year averages of reported cases it showed at year 1999 nearly the same case incidence level as the average for years 2005-2014. Prior to this the incident rate had been growing, but it was in 1999 that a 10-year average incident rate of 0.000401 per peak publisher was achieved. This made me look back to in-and-around 1989 to see if something at that time would have augmented reporting of child molestation. 1989 was the year Watchtower sent out a letter to congregation elders that singled out child molestation and directed elders to always report these allegations to Watchtower by calling its legal department. To my knowledge this was the first of such a directive to elders. This would explain why reporting began to rise of child molestation allegations in particular.

  5. The 10-year average incident rate of 0.000401 per peak publisher as of 2014 represents somewhat of a downward trend. I say "downward" because as a 10-year average this prevalence was first achieved in 1999. After than it went up, reaching a zenith in year 2008 at 0.000681 per peak publishers as a 10-year average. Since then as a 10-year average the incident rate has slowly declined back to its 1999 level.

  6. For whatever it's worth, applied to the worldwide peak publishers for the period of 1975-2014 incident values disclosed in the Australian Branch data extrapolates 81,821 reported cases worldwide of perpetrators with standing in a congregation of Jehovah's Witnesses, and it extrapolates 148,040 child victims. Over this span of years the average number of congregations per year is about 73,000. This means for the period of 1975-2014 each congregation has experienced, on the average, at least one reported case of a child molester in its midst. (Personal note: this fits my own experience. In my years working with several congregations of Jehovah's Witnesses, I don't recall one where elders had not reported at least one incident of child molestation. These probably included incidents that are not included in my statistical review because my review excluded for one reason or another more than 150 of the cases included in the Australian Branch data report. But when I was through crunching these numbers it dawned on me that this fits what I've experienced myself.)
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  37

  Australian Branch Stats?

  by Marvin Shilmer in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  i'm working on some statistical analysis of child abuse data made public by the royal commission.

  while i'm working on this, can someone here do me a favor and look up the peak publisher figures reported by watchtower for the australian branch for each of the years from 2005 through 2014?

  my thanks in advance.

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  Marvin Shilmer

  This isn't a mistake its deliberate, they knew. The kingdom of God belongs to these one`s. To the children & they have knowingly put them in danger.

  Yes. Watchtower knowingly put men into trusted and authoritative positions who had sexually molested a child or children. It's beyond reprehensible. It makes a dog want to defecate! It's even harder on a human with any sense of decency!

  Everyone of those men put in the witness box had only one concern. PROTECTING THE ORG, not Jehovahs name & not the kids.

  Yep. And that says plenty!!!
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  37

  Australian Branch Stats?

  by Marvin Shilmer in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  i'm working on some statistical analysis of child abuse data made public by the royal commission.

  while i'm working on this, can someone here do me a favor and look up the peak publisher figures reported by watchtower for the australian branch for each of the years from 2005 through 2014?

  my thanks in advance.

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  Marvin Shilmer

  I notice something about the statistical values I'm generating and have a question:

  - Is there something that would have caused a difference in the prevalence of elders reporting child molestation in in the years 1983, 1984 or 1985 in Australia or any other branch?

  I know in the late 1980s (1989 as I recall) there was a letter sent to congregation elders that emphasized that elders should report to Watchtower (legal department) if they heard report of physical or sexual abuse of a child. This would tend to augment reports to Watchtower of child abuse, including sexual abuse. But my question asks whether there was something akin to this that occurred somewhere in or around 1983-5.
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  37

  Australian Branch Stats?

  by Marvin Shilmer in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  i'm working on some statistical analysis of child abuse data made public by the royal commission.

  while i'm working on this, can someone here do me a favor and look up the peak publisher figures reported by watchtower for the australian branch for each of the years from 2005 through 2014?

  my thanks in advance.

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  Marvin Shilmer

  Okay, I'm back for more help.

  This is what I need: Peak publishers for Australia branch for each year for years 1975 through 2014.

  Never mind. I found it.
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  82

  Quality Thinking - Warning: Long Post Ahead

  by Viviane in

  1. watchtower
  2. beliefs

  recently, several threads have had some debate about logic, evidence, critical thinking and skepticism.

  i wanted to write a post discussing those things, hopefully to clarify what those things are, why they are important and how to use those tools.

  first, logic, at its core, is simply a method for how to reason validly, how to draw conclusions based on a premise.

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  Marvin Shilmer

  • I understand and agree in theory. The problem again is that in practice we are dealing with humans. And the fact is that, with us, it just ain't that easy because of the way we are made.

    Individuals do as they want.

    Those who want to minimize potential of falling victim to confirmation bias choose as a practice to look for evidence and let that evidence lead to whatever conclusion it leads to.

    Those who want to look for evidence to support a preferential conclusion will do that, and they will find themselves hobbled by their practice of confirmation bias.
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  37

  Australian Branch Stats?

  by Marvin Shilmer in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  i'm working on some statistical analysis of child abuse data made public by the royal commission.

  while i'm working on this, can someone here do me a favor and look up the peak publisher figures reported by watchtower for the australian branch for each of the years from 2005 through 2014?

  my thanks in advance.

  1. 
  2. 
  3. 
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  Marvin Shilmer

  It's clear though that the global figures are shocking.

  I don't think the overall numbers will be particularly shocking. We already know child abuse is prevalent, and we have no reason to think the JW community is immune from this plague. It's just a fact that so far no one has had a solid basis to calculate the numbers (other that Watchtower insiders, that is!). Now that's changed. We now have something substantial as a basis to measure as a minimum how much of this is going on in the JW community.

  The thing I think people should focus on is the fact that Watchtower asks the JW community to report these incidences to its own appointees but has no protocol at all in place that offers even a shred of protection to the wider community of children based on these reports. Watchtower acts like the moral advice to love your neighbor as yourself is of no account! How can it be said that Watchtower policy would have elders (for that matter, any JW!!!) love their own neighbors as they love themselves when they do not advise those elders to make local law enforcement aware of child abuse allegations. The whole thing is upside-down and backwards from a moral perspective, and elders in Australia are learning that perhaps what they've been doing is illegal too!
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  37

  Australian Branch Stats?

  by Marvin Shilmer in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  i'm working on some statistical analysis of child abuse data made public by the royal commission.

  while i'm working on this, can someone here do me a favor and look up the peak publisher figures reported by watchtower for the australian branch for each of the years from 2005 through 2014?

  my thanks in advance.

  1. 
  2. 
  3. 
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  Marvin Shilmer

  I was wondering if there was perhaps a correlation between the figures and how they were handling matters. Seems you may be on to something!

  We cannot always know why a sample will be populated as we find it, but in cases where we can't be sure sometimes we can make good guesses based on available evidence.

  Regardless, a population value we find against a given sample size will be whatever it is. In terms of extrapolation our duty is to do it responsibly and not to a given result. In this case, beginning about 25 years ago Watchtower gave steam to an effort to have local elders give special treatment to reports of sexual child abuse. Taking a look at the overall annual levels of reported cases of perpetrators, and specifically to cases involving JWs or anyone with standing in a congregation, will provide a good glimpse into whatever consequences resulted from this policy shift. As I have time to work on this I'll share it. It's not rocket science. It just takes time.
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  82

  Quality Thinking - Warning: Long Post Ahead

  by Viviane in

  1. watchtower
  2. beliefs

  recently, several threads have had some debate about logic, evidence, critical thinking and skepticism.

  i wanted to write a post discussing those things, hopefully to clarify what those things are, why they are important and how to use those tools.

  first, logic, at its core, is simply a method for how to reason validly, how to draw conclusions based on a premise.

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  Marvin Shilmer

  Marvin, that was tongue in cheek nothing personal, carry on.

  I understood that, JW_Rogue.

  Mainly I replied as I did for sake of clarity so other readers didn't get a wrong idea.